Thirty-seven
of these counties contain incorporated cities greater than 50,000,
and another 121 are near large metropolitan centers.
The remaining 251 counties are largely non-metro or rural in character,
having no cities greater than 50,000 and at locations removed
from large metro centers.
Some of these non-metro counties, while not having large cities,
do have cities that serve as regional centers: places such as
Medford, Grand Junction, Flagstaff, Idaho Falls, Pocatello, Eureka,
Bend, and Missoula.
There are 29 of these "regional center" counties among
the 251 non-metro forest land counties. Another 109 counties,
while not containing regional centers, are located next to these
counties.
The remaining 113 counties from the group are largely "isolated
rural counties."
The 251 forest land counties were evaluated for their economic
dependence on the wood-products industry. Counties considered
heavily dependent are those where the industry accounted for more
than 10 percent of all labor income generated by all employment
during a three-year period from 1976 to 1978, a time when the
"cut" coming from these forest lands was relatively
high and before the dramatic declines in the industry over the
past two decades.
Of the 251 non-metro counties near these forests, only 43 were
found to have been "heavily dependent" on this industry
in the late 1970s.
Somewhat surprisingly, only nine of the 113 isolated rural counties
were wood-products dependent in the late 1970s, contrary to the
widespread myth that most rural communities near these lands are
or were timber-dependent.
Over the past 20 years, labor earnings by those employed in wood-products
manufacturing of all types in these 43 counties fell from $3.1
billion in 1978 to less than $1.8 billion in 1991.
This is a decline of more than $1.3 billion or a loss of 42 percent
of the industry. From 1991 to 1998, industry earnings declined
by another $235 million.
With these declines, the wood-product industry’s share of
total labor earnings in these counties fell from 22 percent in
1978 to less than 9 percent.
And among the entire 251 non-metro counties near these lands,
the industry’s share of total labor earnings fell from 7.5
percent to 3.2 percent during the period.
Repercussions
While declines of this magnitude in a primary industry would ordinarily
portend massive erosion of the area economy, this hasn’t
happened; at least, not in the past decade.
Population growth more than doubled in the 43 wood-products dependent
counties in the past decade. Overall employment increased by a
total of nearly 145,000 jobs between 1990 and 1998, with total
employment increasing by about 20 percent.
And while the largest manufacturing sector in these areas saw
massive declines, total manufacturing employment in the counties
in 1998 totaled nearly 90,000 jobs, compared with just under 92,000
in 1980.
Construction activity, far from collapsing in the midst of these
wood-products industry declines, increased by 30 percent during
the 1990s, rising by more than $305 million in inflation-adjusted
dollars.
In the other 208 non-metro counties not heavily dependent on wood-products
manufacturing, construction labor earnings rose by more than 44
percent.
These dramatic increases in overall employment and construction
activity are pushing area economies, even as their long-standing
extractive industries continue to decline, as evidenced by high
growth in health care, local government, financial services, business
services, wholesale trade and many other sectors central to growing
economies.
Income from "non-labor" sources, such as investment
income and transfer payments, also is growing more rapidly than
from labor sources in these areas.
For all counties near forest lands, per capita income gains between
1990 and 1998 averaged 12.6 percent for the 29 "regional
center" counties, 13.2 percent for the 109 counties near
these centers, and 15.7 percent for the 113 isolated rural counties.
These gains compare with 12.6 percent for the entire 22-state
West and 12.9 percent nationwide.
Sea change
While many Western politicians argue that lower levels of logging
and mining are destroying local economies, rumors of the economic
death of these communities is largely premature.
The main reason for this is a "sea change" in migration
patterns in the West.
During the 1980s, much of the population growth in the West was
in and around the largest cities. However, during the '90s, much
of the growth shifted to smaller cities and non-metropolitan areas.
Much of this shift is associated with an older and more mobile
population, with more mobile sources of income and greater flexibility
in locations of employment.
More and more people are finding it easier to move to where they
want to live. Migrants flee some areas – those with high
crime, too much traffic, high living costs, poor amenities –
and gravitate to other areas, largely places perceived to be nice
places to live.
This new-found freedom has meant a lot more people living near
public forests. The 29 regional center counties, which had net
migration of only 7,600 during the '80s, have had a net influx
of 180,000 people during the '90s.
And this considers only those who actually changed their permanent
address. It does not include the large numbers gravitating to
these areas as part-time residents (see
population change table).
The 109 forest land counties near these regional centers experienced
net migration of nearly 186,000 people, up from only 4,900 during
the '80s.
And the 113 isolated rural counties, which lost nearly 32,000
people through net out-migration in the '80s, gained nearly 116,000
people through net in-migration in the last decade.
For the entire group of 251 forestland counties, more than 481,000
more people moved to these areas in the '90s than moved away.
And this massive reversal in migration is pushing economic growth
and restructuring, even as traditional industries continue their
consolidation and slow decline.
The future
A 1999 study by the USDA’s Economic Research Service found
that "population change in rural counties since 1970 has
been strongly related to their attractiveness as places to live."
The study further found that "employment change in rural
counties over the past 25 years has been highly related to natural
amenities. Counties low on the [amenities] scale had relatively
little growth, while high-scoring counties had an average of three
times as many new jobs in 1996 as in 1969." (Economic Report
No. 781).
The question becomes: "What does this mean for public forest
management in the future?"
The biggest mistake decision-makers can make is to deny this economic
transition is taking place.
This is essentially what was done in a recent assessment done
for policy-makers in Montana, Idaho, Washington, and Oregon ("Columbia
Basin Socio-Economic Assessment," Barney & Worth/E.D.
Hovee, June 1999).
In time-honored fashion, the study surmised that rural communities
in the Columbia Basin "are falling further behind their urban
counterparts" and attributed the "Columbia Basin’s
decline in the 1990s ... to federal policies: on timber harvest,
grazing allotments, endangered species, environmental regulations,
etc." (p. 1).
The assessment, funded by the U.S. Economic Development Administration,
is meant to provide a basis for a "collaborative effort to
design a comprehensive Economic Adjustment Strategy for the entire
Columbia Basin."
We can't afford to plan for economic development by viewing the
future through the rearview mirror.
The new-found growth now occurring in these areas is providing
a bridge to the future, providing employment and growing sources
of income as their economies change and restructure.
Population growth offers both an opportunity and a challenge.
The opportunity lies in the potential to redefine area economies
and to better position communities for the future.
Without this recent surge in population growth, this restructuring
would be much more difficult.
The challenge lies in properly planning for and managing this
growth as it occurs. Without adequate planning, rapid growth may
degrade the very amenities that make these communities attractive
places to live, jeopardizing their economic growth and vitality.
As the economies of these areas fundamentally change, so too,
does the role played by public forests.
They are not becoming less important as economic assets to these
communities; they are in all likelihood becoming more important
because of the high values an increasing number of people attach
to their amenities.
In the old economy, the economic imperative led many forest managers
to err on the side of extractive industries. But in the new economy,
there is a new imperative, one that many in the West resist. And
it is this:
The economic futures of these communities will increasingly hinge
on how carefully these forest lands are managed for the values
they impart to nearby communities -- values that make these communities
attractive and vital places to live for more and more people.
Larry
Swanson is an economist and associate director of the O’Connor
Center for the Rocky Mountain West of The University of Montana.
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