Even in challenging economic times, the outlook for Idaho Falls and eastern Idaho remains one of continued growth.
In fact, the region - which includes eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming - could be on the cusp of a boom, said Rick Rasker of the Sonoran Institute in Bozeman, Mont. He helped put together a new report, "Getting Ahead in Greater Yellowstone," which profiles 20 counties in three states.
"People want to live here," Rasker said. "It's Yellowstone. It's magical."
That growth will put pressure on communities to plan. Poor management, leading to unchecked sprawl, could in the long run undo the attributes that make communities attractive to a company or entrepreneur looking for a new place to do business, he said.
Those attributes include friendly, educated people, superb scenery and outdoor recreation, and low property costs.
Rasker said zoning is viewed in the Intermountain West as a dirty word, so much so that the people at the Sonoran Institute don't use it, preferring the euphemism "guaranteed densities" instead.
But a town's appearance is a huge economic asset, and zoning is probably the only way to address it, he said. If a community is littered with empty "big box" stores, its downtown is decrepit and its housing developments look like places where people don't know who their neighbors are, it will be a waste of what has traditionally made the region special and attractive.
"Economic improvement and growth alone are not enough to sustain communities," he said. "The places that are doing well are the ones who are utilizing their human and social capital."
So far, something seems to be working for the region. In the past 30 years, the area has increased in population by more than 160,000 and created more than 143,000 jobs. That represents faster growth than Idaho, Wyoming and Montana posted by themselves during the same period.
Rasker said the area could be headed for the same kind of growth seen 25 to 30 years ago on Colorado's Front Range. Its key economic indicators - population growth, employment and personal income - reflect great strength. "All across America, rural communities are suffering rough times. But Greater Yellowstone is not only resilient, it is surprisingly robust."
Park Price, a longtime Pocatello car dealer and now the Bank of Idaho's new president, said he expects a continued exodus of Californians to the Gem State.
"Property values are so reasonable here, we are in a good position to recruit from high-cost areas," he said. He pointed to Buck Knives' recent decision to move from San Diego to Coeur d'Alene, where labor and operating costs were estimated to be 30 percent lower.
Eastern Idaho's economic development people have been having "enormous luck" with getting the attention of companies in California, Price said. That has a lot to do with energy and workers' compensation costs there, and the state's massive budget problems. "Our adaptable work force and overall cost structure make us very appealing," Price said.
Given the state of the national economy, it wasn't surprising to Chris Hertz that there was a general malaise among the companies he visited earlier this year in Southern California. "Companies that were 30 to 40 people were down to 15, 18 or 20," said Hertz, acting director of the Eastern Idaho Economic Development Council.
Any new companies that come to eastern Idaho are likely to be small and not heavily dependent on a vendor that has to be located nearby. "We are isolated, but it's not that bad," he said. "We are challenged, but we're not out of the game."
With layoffs possible at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory - Bechtel BBWI, the site's management and operations contractor, announced in early June that it might be laying off 500 people this summer - there is an added sense of urgency in eastern Idaho's efforts to market its labor force and "technology corridor."
The INEEL has shrunk to nearly half the size it was 10 years ago, and the cutbacks have had an effect. According to the Sonoran Institute's study, average earnings per job have declined from $29,678 in 1970 to $26,726 in 2000.
The economic development goal is to attract good-paying jobs to the area to replace the ones lost at the INEEL.
But if past trends hold true, it's not likely to be a big employer that takes up the slack. The Sonoran study shows it has been small companies driving the region's economic growth. The overwhelming majority of new businesses established in the Greater Yellowstone Region between 1990 and 2000 had fewer than 10 employees.
On top of all that, the biggest source of income, both in the region and in Bonneville County, was from nonlabor sources. Total income from dividends, interest and rent in Bonneville County in 2000 was reported at $70 million. Transfer payments (Social Security, disability, insurance payments and Medicare) accounted for another $34 million.
By contrast, farm income totaled $3 million in 2000, according to the Sonoran study. Construction income totaled $7 million, and government income was $16 million. Only the service sectors came close, totaling $42 million.
Rasker said that as the Baby Boom generation begins retiring - it will be 2008 when the first boomers reach age 62 - more and more people are will live off nonlabor income. Their need for services, especially health care, is going to fuel growth in segments already booming in Bonneville County.
Rasker said the area is likely to see a continued flow of "equity refugees" - people who sell modest homes in places such as Colorado and California - and come to Idaho to live off the money they've pocketed.
There is no doubt people will be changing the communities they come to live in. Cindy Felt, Blackfoot's community planning coordinator, said she already senses a struggle going on in the community, which is growing steadily.
"Blackfoot is trying to decide what it wants to be," she said. Some people are talking about things such as sidewalks and streetlights in the residential areas, with the idea of making the town more presentable as a small city, she said.
But on the other hand, "We've got a lot of people who have lived here for years and like the rural nature of the town," she said. "We do struggle with our identity."
Reporter Paul Menser can be reached at 542-6752 or via e-mail at pmenser@idahonews.com .
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